I showed Marko today how I think about executing outcomes that need to happen. I quickly sketched a graph that looks similar to the below:
Of course the 1st choice is to optimize for an outcome that's highly preferred and also highly likely to happen. However, the next best choice is to optimize for an outcome that's highly likely to happen, at the expense of the preferred outcome. That's because by optimizing for an outcome that's highly likely to happen, you protect the downside of not having an outcome at all.
If the 3rd choice then becomes available, you take that outcome; but if it doesn't, at least you have an outcome.